Democratic-leaning voters less likely to choose Biden after debate, survey finds


“Confused.” “Frail.” “Dementia.”

Those were a few of the words used to describe Biden’s lackluster performance and appearance at Thursday’s presidential debate by Democratic-leaning voters, who were less likely to say they’d vote for him after it was over, according to a new survey and virtual focus group.

The president’s cognitive and physical fitness left more of an impression on respondents than anything else, according to the survey, which was spearheaded by former Bill Clinton pollster Stan Greenberg and asked 374 registered voters to complete a questionnaire right before and after the debate to compare shifts in sentiment, in addition to dial tests during the debate. But Biden’s repeated stumbles didn’t immediately push these voters toward rival Donald Trump — who participants recalled as being more composed, though they acknowledged Trump gave more evasive, misleading answers to questions.

While 65 percent of the voters surveyed said they would vote for Biden in a head-to-head matchup with Trump before the debate, only 54 percent said he won the debate once it ended, according to the survey. The other 46 percent selected Trump as the victor after observing both candidates’ performances.

The survey is different from typical polls in that it was intended to measure opinions of a Democratic-leaning sample of voters and observed the same group of participants at two different points in time — before and after the debate — and also asked several open-ended questions.

Overall, Biden lost six points to Trump among voters surveyed after the debate, with 62 percent indicating that they’d still vote for the president while 38 percent suggested they would vote for the former president on a two-way ballot, the survey found. Biden’s approval rating post-debate dropped by two points, fueled by a decline among Hispanic and third-party voters, while Trump gained in his approval rating by just one point — with third-party voters driving the largest increase in approval.

“President Biden was hurt badly by the debate, but Donald Trump didn’t benefit on any measure, except the vote,” a summary of the findings reads, referring to its measurement of which candidate voters would choose on a ballot before and after the debate. 

The findings come after Biden delivered hoarse, often incomplete responses to Trump’s attacks on Thursday and sparked a wave of Democratic concern that he may not be fit to win — or even seek — reelection. Biden and his party are working to assuage these doubts by citing Trump’s frequent lies, pointing to an energized rally in North Carolina on Friday and emphasizing that Biden will not be stepping aside.

The survey’s findings zeroed in on the big gaps between the share of voters who said they’d vote for Biden before the debate, and the share of voters who said Biden won the debate afterward — suggesting that many of his supporters are plenty aware of his bad showing, but still support his candidacy.

Black voters, “dual haters” of both candidates and third-party voters were measured as having the biggest difference in their likelihood of voting for Biden before the debate and their rating of his debate performance afterward. While 64 percent of third-party respondents said they’d vote for Biden ahead of the debate, only 38 percent said he won the debate after watching it.

Regardless of whether they said Biden did well or not in the debate, participants didn’t seem to signal a broad shift in underlying sentiments toward Trump that would significantly alter the race. White, unmarried women grew more fearful of a second Trump term during the debate, while Black voters grew somewhat wearier of Biden continuing, and Hispanic voters were essentially unchanged in their sentiment toward Trump returning or Biden continuing as president into 2029.

Also relatively unchanged from before and after the debate were the issues important to voters throughout the election. While Biden lost some ground to Trump on how he would handle protecting democracy, half of the voters before and after the debate viewed him as the better choice for the economy and cost of living — issues that have dogged the president since before he began his reelection campaign.

The PSG Consulting, Democracy Corps, and Greenberg Research poll was conducted June 27, surveying 374 registered voters nationally. The qualitative survey analyzed several individually recruited groups, including dual haters, third-party voters, Black and Hispanic voters, young white voters and single female white voters.

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