Kenya Protests Spread, Push Ruto to Take $1.6 Billion Budget Hit


(Bloomberg) — Police sealed off Kenya’s national parliament on Thursday as anti-tax protests spread to more towns days after the government said it would amend a raft of levies in the face of popular opposition.

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After mass street protests kicked off on Tuesday in the capital, Nairobi, the government agreed to drop among others, a value added tax on bread, a wealth levy on motor vehicles and duties on imported wheelchair tires that have infuriated Kenyans. But the National Treasury warned that withdrawing the controversial measures risks creating a 200 billion shilling ($1.6 billion) financing hole for a nation that in 2021 had to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

Tuesday’s protests were met by a police crackdown and teargas had already been deployed by midday Thursday in Nairobi, while demonstrators massed in at least eight other major towns. The rallies are not linked to any political party, and have been organized largely by young people on social media, catching the government off guard.

The IMF program has put Kenya under pressure to increase tax collections and implement painful fiscal reforms in order to unlock more funding. Kenya’s debt is about two-thirds of GDP and is considered at high risk of distress.

The removal of the taxes will be accompanied with spending cuts across the board in order to remain within budget-making laws, Treasury Secretary Njuguna Ndung’u said in a letter sent to lawmakers Wednesday.

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But protesters aren’t satisfied. They want the government to scrap its entire plan to raise 302 billion shillings in new taxes, which has seen the middle and lower class squeezed even as it thrills international investors.

“More borrowing appears inevitable” and Kenya may be forced back to international capital markets, according to David Omojomolo, Africa economist at Capital Economics Ltd. That will be “tricky given yields are still quite expensive and concerns about Kenya’s fiscal sustainability beyond the near-term have not gone away,” he said.

The contentious budget is Ruto’s second since taking office in 2022. It projects revenue at a record 2.92 trillion shillings for the year beginning July.

A financing shortfall equivalent to 3.3% of GDP — a significant drop from 5.7% in the current fiscal period — will be funded through both foreign and domestic borrowing.

Kenya’s currency was little changed by 12:40 p.m. local time. The yield on eurobonds due 2028 rose 6 basis points to 9.78%.

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–With assistance from Eric Ombok.

(Updates with protests kicking off in several towns from first paragraph)

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