Jun. 11—Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will campaign Saturday in Albuquerque. Can you feel the excitement, the heady sense of a 70-year-old newcomer on the rise? Neither can I.

Not since Ross Perot in 1992 has a third-party candidate helped determine the outcome of a presidential election. That trend will continue this year.

Perot, a cantankerous, fast-talking Texan, became a spoiler who helped the blue team. For instance, Perot received 26% of the vote in Nevada, 26% in Montana, 23% in Colorado, 22% in Missouri and 21% in Ohio.

Republican President George H.W. Bush won those five states in 1988. Because of Perot’s presence in 1992, Bush lost all five, plus 27 others. Democrat Bill Clinton easily unseated Bush, thanks to an assist from Perot.

Revisionists might claim Green Party candidate Ralph Nader spoiled the 2000 election for Democrat Al Gore. Nader received 1.6% of the vote in Florida, where Gore lost to George W. Bush by a tiny margin. But Florida and all its hanging chads would not have mattered if Gore had been a good enough candidate to win his home state of Tennessee and its 11 electoral votes.

Unlike Perot, Nader made no impression in most states. Even with Perot’s notable showing, he did not carry a single state.

No third-party candidate has won a state since segregationist George Wallace in 1968. Wallace carried five Southern states including Alabama, where as governor he’d stood in a schoolhouse door in Tuscaloosa to show his distaste for the federal government enabling Black students to enroll at a state university.

Wallace knew he couldn’t win the presidency, but he hoped to be a kingmaker in 1968. If he’d carried eight Southern states instead of five, neither Republican Richard Nixon nor Democrat Hubert Humphrey would have had enough electoral votes to win. The presidential election would have been thrown into the House of Representatives, and an Alabamian who once said “segregation forever” would have wielded his influence with good ol’ boys.

An assassin crippled Wallace during his 1972 campaign for president. Wallace had reverted to being a Democrat by then, after federal legislation knocked down several barriers to Black people being able to vote.

Third-party candidates continued to pop up, though few made much noise at the polls.

Congressman John Anderson of Illinois received ample media attention during his 1980 presidential campaign as an independent. Anderson received 5.7 million votes, but he was no factor in the outcome. Republican Ronald Reagan carried 44 states as he ousted Democratic President Jimmy Carter.

New Mexico had its own third-party candidate in 2012 and 2016. Gary Johnson, a Republican during his two terms as New Mexico’s governor, bolted to the Libertarian Party for a chance to be heard as a presidential candidate.

Johnson didn’t come close to winning any state, but he received 9% of the vote in New Mexico in 2016. That was enough to qualify moribund Libertarians as one of the state’s major parties.

If Kennedy makes the ballot in New Mexico, he won’t approach Johnson’s level of support. A challenge for Kennedy is collecting at least 3,562 valid signatures by New Mexico’s June 27 filing deadline for independents. He faces similar requirements to qualify for the ballot in many other states.

Third-party candidates tend to poll respectably in the months before the general election, only to fade as November draws nearer. Voters who liked what Wallace or Perot or Johnson had to say in summertime decided to back someone who could win in the fall.

Though Kennedy hails from a famous political family, his prospects are no better than his predecessors as third-party candidates. And they are a good deal worse than Perot’s, who in 1992 received 19% of the vote nationally. Can anyone outside Kennedy’s inner circle imagine him doing half as well?

Zealots who oppose vaccinations will rally to the side of Kennedy, who’s been their hero. Voters who were fond of his late father and uncles might want to help him.

But Democrats know President Joe Biden is the only one who can stop a return to power by Republican Donald Trump. Even if Biden had not sought reelection, Kennedy would have been buried in a free-for-all of candidates seeking the Democratic nomination.

Kennedy’s path to the presidential ballot was easier as an independent. It’s still all uphill.

If he runs the race of his life, he might spoil a state or two for Trump or Biden. He’s a Kennedy, but he’s no Ross Perot.

Ringside Seat is an opinion column about people, politics and news. Contact Milan Simonich at msimonich@sfnewmexican.com or 505-986-3080.