Now that Ohio has tied its record for tornadoes in a single year, meteorologists keep reminding everyone that one year, no matter how remarkable, isn’t enough time to declare bad tornado seasons the new normal.

But what about 15 years?

An Enquirer analysis of National Weather Service data found the number of tornadoes per year since 2010 is double the annual average of the previous 50 years.

From 2010 through May of this year, an average of almost 32 tornadoes a year touched down in Ohio. From 1960 through 2009, the average was 16.

So far this year, 62 tornadoes have struck Ohio, tying the previous record set in 1992.

Scientists say those numbers are worth noting, but they aren’t convinced the big jump is as dramatic as it might seem. They say weather patterns change from year to year and even from decade to decade, so it’s too soon to draw conclusions from the past 15 years. In meteorological terms, the sample size is too small.

They also caution that it’s possible the surge in confirmed tornadoes has little to do with the weather. Instead, they say, the higher numbers could just mean people are getting better at spotting twisters that years ago would have been missed.

“What I always remind people of, when we talk about tornado numbers, is how tornado detection and technology has changed so dramatically,” said Seth Binau, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wilmington.

New technology makes spotting Ohio tornadoes easier

Around 2010, at about the same time tornado confirmations began to climb, upgrades to Doppler radars across the country made it easier for meteorologists to detect cloud rotation and debris associated with tornadoes.

Where once a roof blown off a barn might be chalked up to “wind damage,” the new technology can reveal the culprit as a tornado.

Ohio’s 58th tornado this year, which touched down on May 26 in rural Jackson County, is a case in point. By tornado standards, it was small, classified as an F1 tornado with wind speeds topping out at about 90 mph.

But Doppler radar and weather service surveyors quickly confirmed a tornado was responsible for damaging a tractor supply store and flipping a parked semi-trailer. A few decades ago, without an eyewitness, that might not have been possible.

Binau said another relatively new technology that’s helped confirm tornadoes is carried every day by millions of people: a smart phone. Video of a tornado shot on those phones not only produces a riveting social media post, it also can tell a more detailed story about the tornado’s location, size and intensity.

“Maybe these tornadoes have always been out there,” Binau said, “and we just didn’t know about them.”

While scientists say better detection may be the best explanation for the rising number of confirmed tornadoes, they acknowledge that changing weather patterns also could play a role.

Climate change is creating warmer, wetter conditions ideal for tornado-generating storms. And there is some evidence that those conditions might be shifting “Tornado Alley” – the huge area in the central United States where most tornadoes traditionally develop – farther east to an area that includes parts of Kentucky and Ohio.

But climate scientists are wary of making snap judgments based on tornado data collected over 10 or 15 years. They say warming oceans, melting ice sheets and long-term increases in temperatures across the globe are far better indicators of climate change.

“Tornadoes are considered a more isolated weather phenomenon,” according to research published by the State Climate Office of Ohio. “So it is difficult to link any one tornado to climate change.”

Numbers still vary wildly year to year

Tornadoes are as unpredictable as they are destructive, making it hard to work them into climate models that scientists use to predict changes in temperatures and other weather patterns related to a warming global climate.

“It is extremely difficult to extract a climate change signal in historical tornado counts,” said Michael Notaro, director of the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research at the University of Wisconsin.

He said most of the increase in tornado counts over the past 15 years can be attributed to smaller, F1 tornadoes, which lends credence to the argument that better detection is capturing weak storms that were missed in previous decades.

Binau said it’s important to remember that the weather on any given day is just a snapshot in time, not necessarily part of a trend. A few hot days, in isolation, aren’t indicators of global warming, but 100 years of rising global temperatures tell a different story.

The same holds true for tornado data. Even during the past 15 years, as the total number of tornadoes climbed, the number from year to year sometimes varied wildly.

In 2022, Ohio recorded 27 tornadoes. Last year, the state nearly broke the record with 60. This year, at 62 and counting, a new record appears likely.

Binau said a few decades isn’t enough time to say for certain what it all means.

“This is a very complex conversation,” he said.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Tornadoes 2024: What’s behind Ohio’s record year?