The UN weather agency is predicting an 80% chance that average global temperatures will surpass the 1.5C target laid out in the landmark Paris climate accord within the next five years.

The World Meteorological Organisation said on Wednesday that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year from 2024 to 2028 is expected to range between 1.1C and 1.9C hotter than at the start of the industrial era.

It also estimated that there is nearly a one in two chance – 47% – that the average global temperatures over that entire five-year span could top 1.5C, an increase from just under a one in three chance projected for the 2023-2027 span.

The report was cited in a sweeping speech about the threat of climate change by UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres to mark World Environment Day.

🚨There is an 80 percent likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five calendar years.

Back in 2015, such a chance was close to zero. https://t.co/r4cDGvY5bR pic.twitter.com/2TQiDGhEKM

— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) June 5, 2024

Meanwhile, the European Union’s climate service says last month marked the hottest May, capping 12 straight months of average monthly temperature records amid high and rising concerns about global warming.

The EU’s Copernicus climate change service, a global reference for tracking world temperatures, cited an average surface air temperature of 15.9C last month, or 1.52C higher than the estimated May average before industrial times.

The burning of fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal is the main contributor to global warming caused by human activity