This story is part of an ongoing weather partnership with WTKR News 3. WTKR will air its 2024 hurricane season special at 7:30 p.m. June 7.

As hurricane season dawns, the Atlantic Coast is in some hot water.

Weather and climate researchers have released their predictions of the 2024 season that begins Saturday, and they don’t look good. Many cite multiple factors contributing to their dire predictions: the La Niña climate pattern, the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon and the probability of Saharan dust storms.

Several such conditions are considered when putting together forecasts, but warm sea temperatures are the gasoline for these storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting 17-25 named storms, which have winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 8-13 will become hurricanes with at least 74 mph winds, and of those, 4-7 could become “major hurricanes.” This is the most the administration has forecasted.

“We have forecast the sea-surface temperatures in the main development region right now are 1-2 degrees centigrade, or 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit, above normal,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “They are equivalent to what we would normally see during August.”

The National Center for Environmental Information keeps data on sea-surface temperature in the United States and its territories. On Friday, sea-surface temperatures in Hampton Roads remained in the mid-70s, and on the Outer Banks, temperatures were in the upper 70s. At the United States Coast Guard station in Hatteras, afternoon temperatures reached 76.8 degrees.

Farther south, where many storms on the East Coast begin before moving toward Virginia, temperatures already are reaching bath-water levels. In Puerto Rico, temperature gauges are recording 87 degrees, and in the Gulf of Mexico, they’re pushing 90. These numbers usually aren’t seen until closer to July or August, according to data from the center.

La Niña, a climate pattern that typically cools sea-surface temperatures along the equator, dampens wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear is the enemy of tropical systems, so it will allow storms to form and stay strong if La Niña does develop. Lower wind shear on top of already very warm water temperatures is the main reason all the hurricane forecasts are forecasting an intense season.

In addition to bigger climate impacts, plenty of little factors on hurricanes continue to be discovered. One is Saharan sands, during which a sand storm system travels over the ocean just north of an area of the Atlantic where most hurricanes are born. The wind, the elevated dry air and even the sand all seem to suppress formation of tropical storms. According to recent reporting from the Yale School of the Environment, new research suggests that the decline in smog particles could be contributing to higher sea surface temperatures, since aerosols in the atmosphere shade the planet by scattering incoming sunlight and sometimes creating clouds.

“I’ve seen a lot of seasons where you’d have all the warm temperature the oceans warm, but you have a situation where you have too much shear,” said Kenneth Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Or you have a situation that the water is warm enough to provide that energy, but you don’t get an African monsoon. You look at this forecast and what goes into this forecast, it’s all coming together.”

According to Colorado State University, the 2024 hurricane season so far is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020. The team predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170% of the average season from 1991-2020. By comparison, 2023’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season. The university noted that 2024 is likely to be “extremely active,” with 23 named storms, which have winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 11 will become hurricanes with at least 74 mph winds, and of those, five could become “major hurricanes.”

“Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season,” CSU’s report reads. “A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook.”

Despite the predictions, hurricane forecasters and local leaders are encouraging the public to stay hurricane-ready, even if a storm is not on the horizon. Virginians can visit https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/hurricanes for more information.

Eliza Noe, eliza.noe@virginiamedia.com