Oil Rangebound as Traders Monitor Iranian and Saudi Developments


(Bloomberg) — Oil traded in a narrow range on Monday as the market watched for any fallout from political ructions in two of the world’s major crude producers.

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Brent hovered around $84 a barrel after posting its first weekly advance this month, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $80.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were killed in a helicopter crash. Separately, there are concerns over the health of Saudi Arabia’s 88-year-old King Salman Bin Abdulaziz, father of the country’s de factor ruler Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Saudi Arabia is OPEC’s top producer and Iran is the third-biggest, but there are no immediate signs that the recent developments will crimp oil supply. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said there “won’t be any disruption to the country’s affairs” as a result of the incident.

Analysts downplayed the significance of the events for crude futures markets. UBS Group AG commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said “oil policies are likely to be unaffected,” a sentiment echoed by consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd.’s vice president of refining, chemicals & oil markets, Alan Gelder.

Global benchmark Brent is around 10% higher so far this year, supported by OPEC+ supply cuts, although prices have cooled since mid-April. Market watchers are turning their attention to the upcoming meeting by the producer group on June 1, where a rollover of existing curbs is expected.

Elsewhere, drone strikes on Russian refineries continue, with the Slavyansk refinery struck over the weekend. A China-bound oil tanker was meanwhile hit by a Houthi missile in the Red Sea area on Saturday. And money managers have sharply cut their net long positions on Brent to the lowest since January, although they were increased for WTI.

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