(Bloomberg) — Wall Street got another signal the labor market is slowing, which could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Equities edged up as data showed a jump in jobless claims to the highest level since August, beating estimated. Fed traders slightly amped up their policy-easing bets for 2024. In the Treasury market, shorter maturities outperformed the rest of the US curve.

“Time will tell whether it’s a one-off or part of a genuine cooldown in the labor market,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Investors may have adjusted to the idea of the Fed waiting until September to cut interest rates, but that doesn’t mean they’re comfortable waiting indefinitely.”

The S&P 500 hovered near 5,190. Two-year yields dropped two basis points to 4.8%. Just a day after an auction of 10-year bonds saw tepid demand, the US will test the market with a $25 billion sale of 30-year Treasuries.

The pound wavered after the Bank of England sent its clearest signal yet that it was closing in on interest rate cuts, with Governor Andrew Bailey indicating markets were underpricing the pace of easing in the months ahead.

The S&P 500 already is beyond the average Wall Street forecast for year-end 2024, so investors understandably are wondering how much more room there is to run. For Leuthold Group’s Doug Ramsey, another 10% gain isn’t out of the question, at least statistically.

He analyzed 80 years of historical data on bull-market rallies, focusing on those that happened when unemployment was this low — below 4% — and the economic cycle this mature. Ramsey zoomed in on two periods that met those criteria — one when the S&P 500 posted its longest bull-market advance, the other when it clocked the biggest gain. The former came in a 26-month advance during the 1960s, while the latter was a 60% rally leading into the dot-com bust at the turn of the century.

If the current rally meets the prior records for length and height, the S&P 500 ends the year at 5,705.

Corporate Highlights:

• Arm Holdings Plc shares tumbled after the chip designer gave a lukewarm revenue forecast for the fiscal year, raising concerns that the tech industry’s artificial intelligence spending spree is slowing.

• Google parent Alphabet Inc. has been progressing in talks to acquire marketing software provider HubSpot Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.

• A 30-year-old Boeing Co. 737 skidded off the runway in the Senegalese capital of Dakar, injuring 10 people, according to the country’s transport minister.

• Airbnb Inc. sank after the home-rental company gave lackluster guidance for a second straight quarter, indicating that growth in travel spending will slow ahead of the peak summer season.

• Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Zaslav has ordered his lieutenants to find additional opportunities for cost-cutting in order to hit financial targets for the next couple years, people with knowledge of the matter said.

• Robinhood Markets Inc. posted its second straight quarterly profit Wednesday as higher interest rates and cryptocurrency trading fueled revenue growth.

• Duolingo Inc. shares slumped after the education software provider’s quarterly report showed it had gained new users at the slowest rate since the third quarter of 2022.

• Brookfield Corp. posted a 5% increase in distributable earnings, beating analysts’ estimates, as higher profits in its insurance business helped offset a soft patch for Brookfield Asset Management.

• Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA took an €11.5 billion ($12.4 billion) bid for Banco de Sabadell SA directly to shareholders, a rare hostile move that the Spanish government said it opposed on concerns over job cuts and reduced competition.

Story continues

Key events this week:

• UK industrial production, GDP, Friday

• ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday

• BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks, Friday

• US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The S&P 500 was little changed as of 9:31 a.m. New York time

• The Nasdaq 100 was little changed

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%

• The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed

• The MSCI World index was little changed

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

• The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0759

• The British pound was unchanged at $1.2498

• The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 155.74 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $61,337.94

• Ether rose 1% to $2,981.28

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.50%

• Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.50%

• Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.16%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $79.24 a barrel

• Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,319.10 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.