A slow-moving storm system that continues to track eastward across the country will be the focal point of the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with a few that could be quite significant with hail, damaging winds and the threat for tornadoes.
The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring two distinct areas for severe weather on Thursday – a region in the Southeast and the Ohio River Valley.
Forecast models show each event could be rather distinctive, with a squall line likely to impact parts of southern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula and more discrete supercells in the Ohio River Valley.
“We kind of have these two zones that we’re going to be watching through the day. The front hangs up a bit through Florida…That’s not an uncommon setup or scenario, but because of a feed from the Gulf of Mexico, there’s moisture leading into this line. The threat for waterspouts and tornadoes will continue into the late afternoon,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Jane Minar.
The wet weather is courtesy of the same storm system that produced dozens of reports of damage and significant flooding along the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. National Weather Service meteorologists said a tornado that struck Lake Charles, Louisiana, was an EF-2, and a Flash Flood Emergency was issued for the New Orleans metro.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the Gulf Coast and slide eastward through the morning and early afternoon.
The main threat from the storms in the region that stretches from near the Georgia-South Carolina line through the Florida Peninsula will be damaging wind gusts, with a chance of an isolated tornado.
Cities such as Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa are all included in what the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted as a Level 2 out of 5 zone on its severe storm scale.
Unlike the northern end of the storm system, the impacts are expected to be fast-moving and offshore by the evening commute.
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A second area the FOX Forecast Center is monitoring is the eastern Ohio Valley, where daytime heating will likely play a role in how active of a severe weather day cities such as Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Columbus will see.
If the timing of the advancement of the cold front remains, thunderstorms are expected to develop on Thursday afternoon near the Ohio-Indiana border before pushing eastward into a more unstable environment, leading to chances of hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
The SPC has highlighted parts of at least four states for being at an enhanced risk of severe storms, which is a Level 3 out of 5 on its scale.
“I think there’s a greater concern for tornadoes, maybe even stronger tornadoes, in the Ohio Valley through Thursday afternoon. Specifically, as you get into eastern Ohio, into West Virginia, and even up towards Pittsburgh as this low tracks its way through,” said Minar.
In addition to the severe weather threat, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing dangerous lightning and heavy rainfall.
Several major waterways in the region, including the Ohio River, remain elevated after inundating some towns in Appalachia last week, so any additional rainfall could aggravate clean-up efforts.
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The entire cold front is not expected to be off the East Coast before Saturday, meaning communities in the Northeast could see scattered rain showers for several days.
Forecast models show rainfall accumulations will be between 1 -3″ for many, which could aggravate rivers and streams that are already at bankfull.
Flash Flood Watches have been posted from the New Hampshire-Vermont line into the upstate of Maine.
Original article source: Severe storms expected to impact Ohio River Valley, Florida Peninsula
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