South Korea’s President Set for Big Loss in Parliament Vote


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South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conservative alliance is set for a major setback in voting for a new parliament, putting him in a weakened position for the remaining three years of his term and likely thwarting his investor-friendly policies.

Yoon’s conservative People Power Party-bloc is likely to get just 87 to 105 seats in the 300-seat unicameral parliament, known as the National Assembly, according to a joint exit poll from national broadcaster KBS that came soon after voting ended Wednesday. The Democratic Party-bloc is expected to expand its majority to 178 to 196 seats.

Turnout was estimated at 67%, which would be the highest in 32 years, Yonhap News said. Final results from the election are expected Thursday.

The progressive bloc led by the Democratic Party held 169 seats before the vote and the PPP-led grouping had 119. It is the only national referendum during Yoon’s term. With a continued majority, the DP-bloc can halt PPP policy priorities that include reducing regulations on businesses, taking on labor unions and cutting taxes on real estate transactions.

If the Democratic Party-led bloc reaches 200 seats, it can amend the constitution, override any presidential veto and approve impeachment measure — effectively hobbling and perhaps even ending Yoon’s government. If the bloc reaches 180 seats, it can halt filibusters.

Yoon won the presidential race in 2022 by the narrowest margin of any candidate and Park Won-ho, a political science professor at Seoul National University, said the results from the parliamentary elections indicate the president has been unable to expand his support base since then.

“He should have tried to embrace the centrist voters” instead of wielding presidential power and using the veto to bulldoze initiatives from the opposition, Park said. “This race was a hard one to win for the conservatives.”

Shortly after exit polls were reported, cheers and applause erupted at an auditorium where Democratic Party candidates were watching the live broadcast of survey results. Meanwhile, Han Dong-hoon, who led the ruling party’s campaign for the elections, said the numbers were “disappointing.”

The results indicate that Yoon’s plans to abolish a capital gains tax on income from financial investments could be scuttled along with his flagship policy of boosting stock valuations via the “Corporate Value-Up” program. That plan calls for offering tax incentives to encourage listed firms to improve their valuations, a measure that requires parliamentary approval.

Read more: Corporate Reforms at Risk From Opposition Win in Korea Election

According to the poll results, a new party launched by Cho Kuk, a justice minister during the administration of Yoon’s predecessor President Moon Jae-in, is expected to grab 12 to 14 seats. Cho’s party looks set to align itself with the progressive DP, which raises the chances the bloc could have enough votes to enact impeachments procedures.

“It’s a victory for our people,” Cho said after the exit poll results were reported. Cho left office in disgrace. He was charged and later convicted of academic fraud and unlawful interference with a government inspection.

Surveys conducted ahead of the election showed the top issues for voters were tackling inflation eating into paychecks, reining in housing prices and providing strength for the country’s export-driven and slowing economy.

Wednesday’s vote also took place as a prolonged walkout by trainee doctors upset over plans to increase medical school seats clouded the race. Polls indicated the public was growing tired of the labor dispute even though it sided with the government’s plan to add more doctors.

Read more: Deaths From Doctor Shortage Fuel Election Angst in Korea

Of the 300 parliamentary seats, 254 are settled by direct elections in constituencies and the rest are allotted by proportional representation. The term in office ends in four years.

Yoon’s main foreign policy initiatives, which don’t require parliamentary approval, are likely to be unaffected by the election results. These include closer security cooperation with the US and Japan, and taking a tough line with North Korea.

–With assistance from Alan Wong.

(Updates with analyst comments, estimated turnout)

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