The Twin Cities is still expected to see six to 11 inches of snow by late Sunday night in what could be the biggest snowfall of the year.

But it may not look like that much by the time residents wake up Monday morning because the snow will likely turn to rain overnight.

“It’ll melt and compact the snow, so people that do measure it in the morning after the night of snowfall will probably not measure six to 11 inches,” said Caleb Grunzke, a forecaster with the National Weather Services in Chanhassen. “It’ll look like a lot less.”

In some cases, the rain may melt all of the snow that falls in southern Minnesota, he added.

But in the Twin Cities, he expects at least two to four inches will remain on the ground by the morning.

“It’s going to be wet slop basically,” he said.

Meanwhile, central and western Minnesota could see from 11 to 16 inches of snow from the storm, he said. That includes areas such as Morris, Alexandria, Little Falls and possibly up to Duluth.

A light snow is beginning to move across the state from the south this morning. In the Twin Cities, it will start increasing in intensity after 1 p.m. with heavier snowfall moving in later in the afternoon and into tonight when up to one to two inches could fall an hour.

There’s a chance for some more light snow on Tuesday morning or afternoon, but it will only be an inch or two, Grunzke said.

And yes, this could still be the high mark for what has been a warm and not very snowy winter in Minnesota. The biggest snowstorm in the Twin Cities so far this year was 6.9 inches that fell on Valentine’s Day.

“There’s a good shot this would be the biggest snowstorm of this winter,” said Grunzke. “We’ve just got to get to seven.”