Why Steve Garvey is still a sure loser


LOS ANGELES — Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff had two victories in the U.S. Senate race Tuesday.

Schiff advanced to the general election in November. He also managed to boost Republican Steve Garvey into the race with him and box out Democrat Katie Porter.

The twin wins put Schiff on a glidepath to the Senate.

While Garvey was able to consolidate most of the Republican vote for himself, Schiff split the Democratic vote with two other viable contenders — Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. The state is so blue that Republicans haven’t won statewide since 2006.

The primary electorate also skews much older, whiter and more conservative than what will be the expected turnout in November, when President Joe Biden faces off against former President Donald Trump.

Indeed, a recent poll found that Schiff holds a 15-point advantage over Garvey, leading 53-38 among likely voters. The Berkeley Institute of Government Studies/Los Angeles Times poll demonstrates how California’s heavily Democratic electorate makes Garvey’s chances exceedingly slim.

But don’t expect to hear that from Schiff. The Burbank Democrat is incentivized to keep up the appearance of a close race with Garvey — at least when it comes to fundraising. Schiff, who is expected to finish the race with at least $10 million in the bank and more flowing into his coffers everyday, will be in high demand from Senate and House Democrats.

Schiff’s cash dominance was a decisive factor in breaking him out from the Democratic pack. The flush bank account — and his national celebrity as the foremost foil to former President Trump — made him a strong contender from the minute he jumped into the race last spring. He spent and benefited from at least $45 million in advertising.

His success was not preordained. As a white man, Schiff was at a representational disadvantage in a Democratic party that puts heavy emphasis on diversity, especially when running against two women. Lee, who is Black, made her biography central to her campaign pitch, but neither she nor Porter explicitly argued that Schiff did not have the background to best represent California.

Now, with Schiff and Garvey advancing to November, California will not have a woman representing the state in the Senate for the first time in more than 30 years.

Schiff’s race against Garvey will likely keep up the same themes as the primary, emphasizing that the Republican voted for Trump in the past and could cost Democrats a seat in the Senate.

But the credibility of that threat — however remote — depends on how much Garvey mounts an actual campaign. The former baseball player’s primary presence was minimal — he did not air any ads on television, nor keep a robust on-the-ground schedule. He did ramp up his fundraising in the final weeks of the primary, raising about $1.5 million in six weeks. But building out a small-dollar operation came at a price, costing nearly a third of what he raised.

The most robust advocate for Garvey was Schiff, who blanketed the state with ads portraying the Republican as too conservative — a clear signal to the state’s GOP voters to back him. Schiff, a despised figure among Trump fans for his role in the former president’s first impeachment, motivated his biggest critics into picking the opponent he wanted for the fall.

Schiff will likely be saving his most dogged campaigning for outside California’s state lines. As the odds-on favorite to beat Garvey, Schiff now can burnish his team player bona fides by helping campaign for — and more importantly, raise money for — Democrats in more competitive Senate races that will be decisive in determining which party controls the chamber.

He already sent out a joint fundraising missive with Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen — who faces a much tougher reelection bid — in the waning weeks of the primary, soliciting donations to be split jointly between the two campaigns. Expect that his lucrative campaign email list will be used to the same effect many times over between now and November.

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