The Democratic incumbent has advanced and a Republican mayor will likely join him in the race for California’s 9th Congressional District, a left-leaning Stockton-anchored seat in the Central Valley.

Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, will go on to the Nov. 5 general election, the Associated Press projected. Leading to join him is Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who garnered the support of national Republican fundraisers.

Harder had 55.3% of the votes that had been counted when the AP called the race for him at around 9:40 p.m. Lincoln was following with 26.9%. The AP estimated that 40% of votes in the district had been counted.

The district covers most of San Joaquin County and parts of Contra Costa and Stanislaus counties.

National Republicans are hoping to flip this seat to keep or extend their current House majority. Though most Democrat-held seats in California are considered safe for their incumbents, analysts have said the race in the 9th is not guaranteed for Harder.

Analysts consider elections on a depreciating scale from “safe” to “likely” to “leaning” to a “toss-up” for a Democrat or Republican. The 9th is “likely” to pick Harder, election forecasters say.

Because the House majority itself is considered a toss-up, each win is crucial.

The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 5 general election.

Harder, 37, was first elected to Congress in 2018 during a national “blue wave” when he unseated then-Rep. Jeff Denham, a Republican. Born in Turlock, Harder worked in venture capital before running for office.

Lincoln, 43, took office in 2021. Born in Stockton, Lincoln joined the Marines in 2001 and was later assigned to Marine One under former President George Bush. He worked for private security companies before becoming a pastor in Stockton in 2013.

Two more Republicans — strength and conditioning coach John McBride and retired engineer Khalid Jeffrey Jafri — were also on the ballot.

Polls closed at 8 p.m. on March 5. Early results started coming in after that, but it will take weeks before all the ballots are counted.

California’s Secretary of State will certify primary results by April 12.

This is a developing story; check back with sacbee.com for updates.