One of the nation’s most closely watched Congressional races is unfolding in California’s San Joaquin Valley, where a Republican incumbent hopes to hold on to his narrowly won seat amid a well-funded Democratic offensive. But before they hope to face each other, the two leading party-backed candidates, Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas must fend off stubborn challengers from within their own ranks.

Days before the state’s March 5 primaries, California’s 22nd House District is locked in a four-way race, turning a competitive contest into a potential nail-biter. Unlike many other states in the nation, California has a “jungle primary” in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the General Election.

As a result, the leading Democratic and Republican candidates in this deeply agricultural district are on shaky ground. Salas must jockey for Democratic votes against state Sen. Melissa Hurtado. At the same time, the Republican incumbent is again challenged by pro-Trump candidate Chris Mathys, who came close to overtaking him in 2022.

“District 22 is a genuine toss-up,” Fresno State Political Science Professor Tom Holyoke said. “The registration tends to lean Democrat, but Republicans have shown they can actually run pretty strongly, at least when they’ve run David Valadao, that is.”

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If it’s a Valadao-Salas run on the November ticket, it will mark a rematch following the 2022 elections. Valadao kept hold of his seat by a little over 3,000 votes—one of the tightest margins of the nation’s midterms. As the two prepare to face off again, political pollsters and election analysts expect another hard-fought race. The Cook Political Report lists the district as one of its “Republican toss-up” races, and the Democratic party has zeroed in on the race as one of the 17 priority districts it hopes to flip.

For Democrats, the outcome of this highly anticipated primary could likely rest on their ability to shore up turnout for their chosen candidate, Salas. For Republicans, the level of support for Valadao will shed light on whether the GOP still has room for the few remaining legislators who have dared to challenge Trump.

GOP candidates wrestle over Jan. 6 impeachment vote

Valadao was one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Trump in 2021 for inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection and attack on the U.S. Capitol. Only two representatives, including Valadao, have held on to their seats since. Four opted to retire instead of running again, and four others lost in their reelection bids, including former representatives Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Tom Rice of South Carolina.

Trump-styled “America First” candidate Mathys, a businessman and rancher who once served on the Fresno City Council, gave Valadao a run for his money in the 2022 primaries. He lost to the congressman by over 1,200 votes—about 2%. As much as Trump hangs over the two Republican candidates, the former president has not endorsed either Valadao or Mathys, and national Republican groups continue to throw their support behind Valadao.

The Republican PAC Congressional Leadership Fund launched a scathing ad in February, attacking Mathys as “soft on crime” and “dangerously liberal.” In a statement to USA Today, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Ben Peterson did not address questions about a possible Mathys-Valadao race and the role of Valadao’s Jan. 6 impeachment vote, instead focusing on the Democrats’ dueling candidates.

“Valley families trust Representative David Valadao because he’s a dairy farmer who gets results,” Peterson said in the statement. “Self-serving Sacramento politicians Rudy Salas and Melissa Hurtado’s infighting—like which one skipped more votes while collecting a cushy taxpayer salary—exposes their failed records, including votes to raise taxes on gas, farmers and medicine.”

Democrats challenged over party pick

As Valadao faces his intraparty challenger, Democrat favorite Salas risks losing some support in the primary to sitting state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, who launched her official bid for the seat last summer. Hurtado has ramped up her campaign in the previous two months, attracting attention over a Democrat-Democrat fight in a district the national party is trying to flip from Republican control.

Ads backing Salas drew ire from the state senator for criticizing her over her voting record on abortion and reproductive rights. It pointed to her “D” rating by a leading abortion rights group in 2022 for not voting on several pieces of legislation that would have expanded access to abortion, invoking a reproof from Planned Parenthood and an 87% rating. Yet last year, Hurtado received an “A-” rating from the same abortion rights group and a 100% score from Planned Parenthood.

The worst-case scenario in the race for Democrats is to see their voting bloc split between the two, which could feasibly lock them out of reaching the November ballot, effectively ensuring a Republican victory. Yet Hurtado has criticized talk of her candidacy as a risk to Democrats in the district and fired back at the Salas’ campaign’s allegations over her abortion rights record.

“If someone wants to claim a lockout, that’s one lie I don’t mind, but leave it to a man like @RudySalasCAto lie about my record — a woman’s record — on reproductive freedom. He should be ashamed,” she wrote Feb. 14 on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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Support for Salas, in Democratic party weight and funds, vastly overtakes Hurtado’s campaign—with Gov. Gavin Newsom stepping into the fray to encourage California’s Democrats to vote for Salas on March 5. However, the back-and-forth between the two Democrats has led to finger-pointing, with some asking why Hurtado entered the race and a few asking why Salas has the party’s backing.

“Amongst the Democrats I know, there has been a lot of angst about this—why did the national party decide to throw its weight behind Salas, who has lost to Valadao before?” Holyoke said. “Hurtado has proven herself to be a pretty scrappy fighter, barely winning her last election but winning it nonetheless.”

Hurtado won her 2022 race for State Senate District 16 by 22 votes.

In a statement to USA Today, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Dan Gottleib touted Salas’ candidacy, highlighting his upbringing in the Central Valley and positions on abortion access and supporting overtime pay for farmworkers.

“The DCCC will do whatever it takes to ensure that MAGA enabler David Valadao is ousted from Congress this November, and Rudy Salas – who came within just over 3,000 votes of unseating Valadao in 2022 – is the best candidate to get the job done,” he said. “Born and raised in the Central Valley, Rudy grew up working the fields with his dad before the sun rose, and for years, he’s fought to honor the values of hardworking Central Valley families.”

As parties maneuver, voters look to key issues

Ads supporting the various candidates have accelerated in the final days before the March 5 primary. As of Feb. 14, Valadao holds the largest war chest with $1.3 million, far exceeding Mathys’ $140,000 and Salas’ $122,000. Hurtado’s campaign had $10,000 on hand.

The Democrat-supporting House Majority PAC and Republican-backed Congressional Leadership Fund PAC unveiled new ads in mid-February. The Democratic PAC has reserved more than $1 million to support Salas’ bid, according to data from AdImpact, running ads attacking Valadao. The Congressional Leadership Fund is putting over $500,000 to support Republican incumbent Valadao, focusing on fellow Republican challenger Mathys.

For Holyoke, as much as the political drama is piquing interest, he estimates the districts’ voters and the issues they are grappling with will begin to play a much larger role in discussions following the primary. At the top of the list for the agricultural heartland are two things, he says: water and the economy.

“There’s been a lot of angst here, as in much of the country, about inflation and the amount of money out of household budgets that have to get spent at the grocery store,” Holyoke said. “That feeds into how people are going to cast their votes.”

The San Joaquin Valley district includes portions of Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the largely agricultural swath encompassing Hanford, Delano, and parts of Bakersfield and Tulare. Voter turnout in 2022 in the 22nd district was notably low, at 34% of registered voters. Statewide, 51% turned out to cast their ballots.

Ivy Cargile, professor of political science at California State University, Bakersfield, says the race may come down to voter turnout. This year marks the first presidential election for California’s 22nd House District after it was redrawn according to 2020 census numbers. The new lines have increased the proportion of Latino voters, but Democrats can’t count on automatic support, she said. Due to the prevalence of agricultural work and lower-paying jobs across the region, turnout could be trickier, she says, as voters must juggle nontraditional shifts.

Though Latinos are the single largest racial and ethnic group statewide, they are the least likely to vote. In the San Joaquin Valley’s 22nd district, nearly 75% of its residents are Latino or Hispanic. After a low turnout in the 2022 midterm elections, Cargile says she worries the trend may repeat.

“Turnout is going to be extremely important,” she said. “I think that the candidates really have to go to work. They have to hit the pavement to get voters to the polls.

Kathryn Palmer is the California 2024 Elections Fellow for USA TODAY. Reach her at kapalmer@gannett.com and follow her on X @KathrynPlmr.

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: California’s competitive 22nd House race erupts into intra-party fight