For more than 200 years, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac have released long-range, annual weather predictions based on a formula comparing data found in solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity. But how accurate have their predictions been so far this winter?

Released last August, the annual winter weather outlook for the 2023-24 season called for a frigid winter with cold temperatures and snowy weather, declaring that “the BRRR is back.” Now, a week into February, temperatures are expected to surpass 50 degrees in Rochester on Friday before dropping back to more seasonal temperatures with highs in the mid-30s next week.

The Farmers’ Almanac prediction predicted snowstorms – with snow, cold rain and frigid temperatures – in the Northeast and New England in mid-February. A large East Coast storm is predicted to bring a “wintry mess” in early March, according to the Almanac. There’s also potential for a late-season snowfall over high terrain in New England in mid-April.

Last winter was mild, with little snow in the Rochester region.

Already this season, more snow has fallen in Rochester as of Feb. 6 then it did for the entire 2022-23 winter season, according to the National Weather Service in Buffalo. The seasonal snowfall currently stands at 34.4 inches, measured at the Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport, which is more than five inches more than last season’s total of 29.2 inches.

Pending the arrival of more snow in February and March, it seems, for the most part, that the almanac’s winter outlook released six months ago has proven to be more or less accurate. January brought the bulk of the snow and several single-digit days.

The weather predictions are drawn from three scientific disciplines with forecasts emphasizing temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, and based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies.

What’s the spring forecast for Rochester, New York?

The arrival of the spring equinox is 11:06 p.m. on March 19, “however, the weather and the calendar might not be on the same page,” the publication notes.

“Overall, we see a cool and stormy season for most places of the United States,” reads the publication.

In New York and the northeast region, March will bring colder weather – with snow in the north and heavy rain elsewhere.

At the end of April, the editors of the fabled weather outlook are calling for many days of cold temperatures, with some possible late snow through much of April over the northeast, Great Lakes, and North Central regions of the country.

May appears to be on the cooler side, the almanac predicts, with an active storm track that could possibly lead to widespread severe weather. For Memorial Day weekend, folks in New York and the northeast should expect frequent showers and colder air.

This article originally appeared on The Bulletin: Spring prediction 2024: What the Farmers Almanac says