After a frenetic couple of weeks for investors, the first full week of February offers a bit of a cool-down for both the earnings and economic calendars. Two-thirds of the Dow industrial stocks have already reported, with Disney stock due in the coming week and Caterpillar (CAT), McDonald’s (MCD) and Amgen (AMGN) also set to report. A number of non-Dow blue chips including Ford (F) and Eli Lilly (LLY), are also set to report. The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with the Nasdaq extended more than 5% above its 50-day moving average and six distribution days stacked against the S&P 500. But IBD notched its exposure recommendation back up to the 80% to 100% range late Friday.

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Stocks To Watch: Five Stocks Near Buy Points

Earnings season is still well underway, so investors should look for stocks that have either reported recently or won’t for several weeks. MongoDB (MDB), Globant (GLOB), Synopsys (SNPS), New Oriental Education (EDU) and Lennar (LEN) all fit the bill. MongoDB is flirting with a buy point and flashing an early entry as it rebounds from the 50-day line. Synopsys also is tripping an early entry as this Long-Term Leader continues its recovery. IT services firm Globant is near a flat-base breakout. So is homebuilder Lennar, as it weathers whipsaw swings in Treasury yields. New Oriental is near a new breakout after a strong run, though China risks are a factor for this for-profit educator.

Disney Stock: A Coup In The Magic Kingdom

Walt Disney releases Q1 results late Wednesday amid another board battle with activist investor Nelson Peltz. Peltz’s Trian Group on Jan. 18 set a target for reaching margins of 15% to 20% by 2027 after announcing plans in December to nominate Peltz and former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo to the company’s board. Meanwhile, FactSet analysts expect earnings to tick up 1% — a second straight increase after four quarters of declines. Revenue growth is projected to slow for the third straight quarter. Analysts see total streaming subscribers at 223.93 million, down a fraction from Q4 and a 4.6% decline from last year. Disney+ subscribership is expected to fall to 148.28 million, down from 150.2 million in Q4.

Tech Earnings: Checking In On Data Security

A handful of leaders from the fast-moving security software group report during the coming week. CyberArk (CYBR), Fortinet (FTNT) and Tenable Holdings (TENB) are all on the list. Forecasts see CyberArk earnings up 193%, Tenable EPS up 17% and Fortinet’s to drop a fraction. After a 4.7% gain in January, the 34-stock group has rallied 47% since the end of October.

Blue-Chip Earnings: CAT Rallies To New Highs

Caterpillar posts Q4 results before Monday’s open. Analysts expect EPS to rise 23% to $4.86 on revenue growth of 3% to $17.06 billion. That would be the slowest growth in a while, after two years of double-digit sales gains. Still, CAT stock is extended after a January rebound, lifted by a positive outlook from industry player United Rentals (URI). Still, there are a couple of question marks. Caterpillar’s order backlog decreased by $2.6 billion in Q3, suggesting a cyclical peak could be near. Also, the Dow Jones heavyweight has much broader international exposure than URI. UBS kept a sell rating on CAT stock on Thursday, saying estimates are too optimistic, but it hiked its price target to 240 from 209.

Stock Charts: In Buy Zones Before Earnings

The best growth stocks, after a strong breakout, will sometimes pause and trade tightly as they consolidate gains. If that pause lasts for three weeks, and the weekly closes are within 1.5% of each other, it creates a three-weeks-tight pattern: an opportunity to grab more of the leader before it continues higher. Three stocks entered the final few days of January in such patterns, with earnings due in the week ahead. McKesson (MCK) and ELF Beauty (ELF) both broke above buy points, putting them in buy zones ahead of their earnings reports. Vertex (VRTX) briefly cleared its buy point before reversing lower to its 21-day exponential moving average.

Automakers: Ford Braces For A Tough Quarter

Ford wraps its 2023 on Tuesday when it reports Q4 results after the market close. Analysts project EPS down 76% to 12 cents with sales off 2% to $43.05 billion. The automaker plans to reduce F-150 Lightning production in 2024 and expects weak global EV sales growth. General Motors (GM) issued bullish guidance this week.

‘Top Pick’ Auto Giant Tests Key Level With Earnings Due

Earnings Calendar

Monday

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) will release its fourth-quarter results late Monday. Analysts expect the European chipmaker to earn $3.65 a share, down 3% year over year, on sales of $3.4 billion, up 3%.

Simon Property Group (SPG) reports fourth-quarter earnings and revenue after the market closes Monday. Wall Street forecasts funds per share falling 2% to $3.33 with sales slipping 1% to $1.38 billion. SPG has formed a flat base and is trading below a 146.91 entry, testing support at its 50-day moving average.

Estee Lauder (EL) reports Q2 results early Monday. FactSet expects the beauty and cosmetics company to report a 65% earnings drop to 54 cents per share, slowing after four quarters of accelerating declines. Analysts see revenue falling 9.3% to $4.19 billion after recording a 10% sales drop last quarter.

Tuesday

BP (BP) announces fourth-quarter earnings and revenue early Tuesday. Wall Street forecasts EPS dropping 40% to 96 cents per share with revenue totaling $53.14 billion, down 23% compared to Q4 2022. Looking to 2024, analysts see production remaining nearly flat compared to 2023 with the U.K.-based oil major’s earnings growing a few cents per share but still well below 2022 levels.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) is on deck to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the stock market closes on Tuesday. Analysts expect the medical products company’s adjusted profit to climb more than 5% to $1.76 per share, and for sales to dip roughly 4%, hitting $7.1 billion.

Eli Lilly, whose stock is at new highs, will report its fourth-quarter results before the market opens Tuesday. The Street will pay close attention to weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes medication Mounjaro. Overall, analysts expect sales to surge 22.5% to $8.95 billion. On an adjusted basis, earnings are expected to come in at $2.31 a share, up 10.5%.

Wednesday

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) reports Q4 earnings on Feb. 7. New Chief Executive Alex Chriss and new Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Miller, are expected to issue conservative 2024 guidance. For Q4, analysts estimate EPS of $1.36, up 10%. Revenue is expected to grow 7% to $7.88 billion. The company plans to cut 9% of its workforce, or 2,500 employees, in 2024.

XPO (XPO) reports full-year earnings and revenue early Wednesday. Analysts expect 2023 EPS will sink more than 21% to $2.77 with sales of $7.72 billion, consistent with 2022 revenue. Wall Street predicts Q4 earnings will slip 37% with revenue increasing 5%. XPO stock is in a flat-base pattern currently trading more than 7% below a 90.84 entry.

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) announces fourth-quarter earnings and revenue after the market closes Wednesday. The consensus view is EPS will grow 9% with sales increasing 6%. ORLY hit a fresh highs of 1,047.57 on Tuesday after breaking out above a buy point on Jan. 18.

Thursday

Illumina (ILMN) will report its December-quarter results late Thursday. Then, analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the DNA-reading giant to report adjusted earnings of 1 cent per share on $1.09 billion in sales. Earnings would slide almost 93% and sales would be roughly flat. Investors will pay close attention to Illumina’s next steps for Grail, the cancer-testing division it acquired over regulators’ objections.

Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) will post its fiscal third-quarter earnings late Thursday. Wall Street is modeling adjusted earnings of 72 cents a share, down 16% year over year, on net bookings of $1.34 billion, down 3%, for the video game publisher.

Lumentum Holdings (LITE) will release fiscal Q2 earnings before the market opens on Feb. 8. Analysts expect the maker of fiber-optic components to report EPS of 31 cents, down nearly 80% from a year earlier. Revenue is expected to fall 39% to $363 million.

Friday

Enbridge (ENB) reports earnings and revenue early Friday. Wall Street forecasts Q4 EPS growing 6% to 67 cents and sales decreasing a fraction to $13.35 billion. ENB stock fell 1.4% in January, finding support at its 200-day moving average and trading sideways for more than 10 days.

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