SAN DIEGO — It may feel like summer in San Diego now, but that’s all about to change in a big way.

A wetter, colder and windier pattern will arrive Thursday in San Diego as a series of atmospheric rivers will slam the West Coast in the beginning of February.

The first storm system arrives early Thursday morning with heavy rain expected Thursday afternoon after 1 p.m. This will make for a messy evening commute.

Precipitation rates could reach 0.75 inches per hour and thunderstorms are possible. This rate of rainfall is less than the peak rain rates from last Monday’s historic storm (at times two inches per hour). However, there is still a considerable risk for urban flooding as 1-3 inches of rain could fall between Thursday and Friday for coast and inland valleys.

It’s unclear which areas will get the worst of conditions, generally all areas have a threat of some flooding. San Diego River at Fashion Valley is expected to flood.

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Winds will be strongest near the immediate coast and coastal waters with westerly winds gusts 25 to 40 mph, up to 50 mph possibly.

Snow levels drop to 4,000 ft. elevation by Friday morning, so a few inches of snow are expected late Thursday-Friday for Palomar Mountain and Mt. Laguna and up to an inch for Julian.

There’s a break in the rain on Saturday and part of Sunday with the expectation of popcorn showers before our second system moves in on Monday. This will be a warmer storm, so likely no snow locally. It is a slower moving system which could stall and bring showers consistently and make previous flooding conditions worse. More on the time and intensity of that system will be clearer later this week.

WHAT IS A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS?

You may see this stormy pattern categorized as a “Pineapple Express.” This basically describes the origin of the warm moisture associated with the atmospheric river.

A strong setup of an atmospheric river dips south into the tropical Pacific and scoops up warm, moist air near Hawaii and transports it north and east towards the West Coast.

The train of moisture then dumps rain and mountain snow when it hits land. According to the National Weather Service, the Pineapple Express can drench California with as much as five inches of rain in a single day.

Every Pineapple Express is considered an atmospheric river event, but not all atmospheric rivers are a Pineapple Express.

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