Stubb Edges Ahead in Race to Win Finland’s Presidency


(Bloomberg) — Finland’s presidential aspirants Alexander Stubb, a former prime minister, and Pekka Haavisto, the previous foreign minister, are hitting the campaign trail on Monday after clearing the first hurdle in the race.

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The two barreled past other candidates to face each other in a runoff in two weeks, with Stubb taking home about 27% of the votes, followed by Haavisto with about 26%. Three in four eligible voters cast a ballot, the biggest turnout in nearly two decades.

Stubb, 55, is more likely to win over voters leaning toward conservative values and may have the upper hand going into the second round, compared with Haavisto, who will appeal to people who had backed candidates to the left on the political spectrum.

Athletic Stubb invited his backers on a walk in central Helsinki on Monday afternoon while Haavisto plans to hold a celebration nearby, showing off his campaign bus that will soon head off to clubs around the country where he plans to spin records as DJ Pexi.

The campaigns so far have lacked personal attacks, and in that vein, Stubb on Sunday asked his team to work hard, be humble and play fair — in recognition that Finns tend to want to see humility from their leaders.

Both Stubb and Haavisto represent such continuity with current policies that pundits have lamented that few differences have been discernible between the contenders.

“We are very aligned on the key security policy questions — NATO membership, Finland’s defense cooperation agreement with the US and on being tough on the Russian border,” the 65-year-old Haavisto said on Sunday. “It’s not a bad thing that Finns are so unanimous on the central foreign policy issues.”

At stake is who will succeed President Sauli Niinisto, 75, as he is no longer eligible to run after serving two consecutive six-year terms. The one seen as the most adept at steering foreign and security policy will likely appeal to the electorate, who are selecting a top diplomat and supreme commander for the defense forces to guard NATO’s longest stretch of border against its main adversary, Russia.

Read More: Finns Vote for New President Facing More Aggressive Russia

The president’s role in leading Finland’s foreign policy grew in significance during Niinisto’s second term after Russia’s unexpected all-out invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, which fundamentally altered Europe’s security calculus. After a radical rethink, Finland joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization last year.

“For us, foreign and security policy is existential,” Stubb said on Sunday. “In that sense we are quite unified in the big picture, whether it’s NATO membership or things linked to that.”

Haavisto on Sunday night appealed for more donations to shore up his campaign, saying funds raised so far had been largely depleted. Stubb will probably win over more monetary support from the corporate sector.

In the runoff on Feb. 11, Stubb is more likely to inherit votes from Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn, who finished with about 15% backing. The 19% who had supported Speaker of parliament Jussi Halla-aho of the nationalist Finns Party could end up not voting at all.

Haavisto can count on the backers of European Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen and Left Alliance leader Li Andersson, who had about 9% combined.

Read More: Finland’s Former Premier to Face Diplomat in Presidential Runoff

–With assistance from Philip Tabuas.

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