Jan. 17—The year ended with El Niño falling short of expectations for delivering a wetter-than-usual fall and winter.

But a recent weather pattern has made up for it in the past few weeks, with a series of storms not only swelling the regional snowpack but boosting its water content, which is important for a healthy spring runoff.

The federal water outlook report issued Jan. 1 had a sour tone as it described the statewide precipitation as being only 63% of normal, with drought conditions persisting from October through December, creating a “bleak start” to 2024.

The promise of El Niño delivering a much-needed wet winter and early spring seemed in doubt.

Then came the snowstorms.

“We’ve been making pretty good gains with our snowpack,” said Jaz Ammon, a hydrological technician at the National Resources Conservation Service who helps compile the reports. “Our picture is looking more optimistic as far as snowpack goes.”

The agency measures snowpack based on depth and water content and compares it to snowpack data in the period from 1990 to 2020. That comprises the “normal.”

Although it’s still below normal, it’s much improved from just a couple of weeks ago, he added.

Northern and Central New Mexico are doing well overall, especially Santa Fe, he said — a sign El Niño is having an impact.

El Niño is a climate pattern in which the Pacific Ocean warms near the equator, resulting in a wetter winter and spring in the Southwest. It’s roughly the reverse of the three back-to-back La Niñas that caused drier-than-normal conditions during those seasons.

In the Santa Fe area, two weather monitoring stations — one placed in the ski basin, the other above the McClure Reservoir in the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed — measured bulging snowpacks.

The ski basin is about 140% of normal and McClure is 210%, both of which far surpass the Taos Ski Valley’s 84%, Ammon said, adding he has no explanation for the wide variation.

National Weather Service forecasters also cheered the recent snow trend during a weekly weather briefing Tuesday.

“We’ve got a really healthy band of snowpack building up across the north-central part of the state,” said Andrew Mangham a Weather Service hydrologist. “That’s great news for water supply.”

The short-term outlook shows warmer, drier conditions in the coming week through most of the region, pausing the winter snows but also giving residents relief from the freezing weather that has kept icy patches lingering on roads and sidewalks, the forecasters said.

“The frigid icebox is going to come to an end,” meteorologist Dan Porter said.

In Santa Fe, highs will reach the low- to mid-40s through Monday. Most nights will remain chilly with temperatures dropping into the 20s.

The city will see a mild chance of precipitation — 10% to 20% — on Sunday and Monday, but temperatures will remain the warmest they have been in weeks.

Storm systems are predicted to move through the state in the last week of January, Porter said. Because of warming temperatures, snow is most likely to occur in the mountains above 7,500 feet, while areas in the lower altitudes could get rain.

The meteorologists agreed what the weather will do after that is anyone’s guess.

However, the current dry spell doesn’t mean El Niño is faltering, Mangham said, noting there’s a lot of winter left.

An El Niño can be gauged as weak or strong in how it drives climate conditions but its vibrancy can’t be judged by how many inches of snow that’s generated, he said.

“I’d say we’re having a classic El Niño now; we did have a late start,” Mangham said. “A classic El Niño pattern does include quiet weeks like the one we’re having right now.”