Some South Carolinians may need raincoats more often in early 2024, but they likely won’t be freezing too much despite El Niño, new forecasts show.

Most of South Carolina can expect around normal temperatures and some above average rainfall for winter from January through March, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook released Thursday. This forecast comes as the Southeast faces a potentially strong El Niño, a weather phenomenon that has been known to produce far colder and wetter winters for the South. However, the Climate Center has noted that while strong El Niño events increase the chances of El Niño-related climate anomalies like more rain, that does not mean those impacts will happen in all locations or be of strong intensity.

SC 2024 winter weather forecast

The Climate Prediction Center expects a 33% to 40% chance of near normal temperatures for much of the Midlands and the Lowcountry in South Carolina for the next three months. It also expects equal chances of normal temperatures for the Upstate.

Rain chances for South Carolina are more varied.

The center predicts a 50% to 60% chance of likely above average rainfall for much of the Midlands and Pee Dee region, but only a 40% to 50% of leaning above average rainfall for the Upstate from January through March. However, most of the coastal region of the state can expect an 80% to 90% of likely above average rainfall.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide, NOAA states. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed east toward the west coast of the U.S.

Officials declared in June that El Niño had begun and the weather phenomenon has gained strength ever since.

According to a recent update from the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 54% chance of a historically strong — sometimes referred to as ‘super’ — El Niño during the winter season through January.

“An event of this strength would potentially be in the top five of El Niño events since 1950,” NOAA states.

What a Super El Niño could mean for SC

According to the National Weather Service, stronger El Niños have been known to cause more rainfall and colder temperatures than average during winter in South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast.

The strongest El Niño on record occurred during late 1997 through early 1998, according to the S.C. Department of Natural Resources.

“This El Niño was responsible for the very wet conditions in the Southeast including the second wettest winter on record for South Carolina,” DNR states.