As 2023 draws to a close, investors who remained in the stock market have reasons to celebrate. The S&P 500 has surged 25% year to date, the Dow is up 13%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has shot up 44%.
However, economist Harry Dent envisions a starkly different scenario for 2024.
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“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we’ll see in our lifetimes,” Dent told Fox News Digital.
The stock market is no stranger to fluctuations, but Dent’s forecast goes beyond the typical market correction.
“This is the one time I’m telling you, do not listen to your financial adviser. Things are not going to come back to normal in a few years. We may never see these levels again,” he stated. “And this crash is not going to be a correction. It’s going to be more in the ’29 to ’32 level. And anybody who sat through that would have shot their stockbroker.”
So how big will the crash be?
“That’s an 86% crash in the S&P and a 92% crash in the NASDAQ. And crypto, it’s going to be 96%,” Dent projected.
It’s a dire picture.
Given the extensive exposure many people have to the stock market through their retirement savings, a severe downturn in the S&P 500 could be devastating. During the market sell-off in 2022 — which pales in comparison to Dent’s projections — CBS News reported that 401(k) and IRA plan participants experienced an estimated loss of around $3 trillion.
For real estate, the economist sees a reversion to “2012 lows.”
“That’s a 50% crash for the average house, which went down 34% in the last crash — more than the Great Depression, more than any time in history,” he said. “That is what’s going to hurt people the most.”
Seeking safety in a storm?
If you believe the markets are headed for a crash of historic proportions, you probably wouldn’t want to stay invested through that downturn.
“If I’m right, it is going to be the biggest crash of our lifetime, most of it happening in 2024,” Dent explained. “So if you just get out for six to 12 months and stuff stays at the highest valuation in history, maybe you miss a little more gains if I’m wrong. If I’m right, you’re going to save massive losses and be able to reinvest a year or year and a half from now at unbelievably low prices and magnify your gains beyond compare.”
Known for being a contrarian thinker, Dent has made similar predictions before.
Given these alarming forecasts, investors are likely seeking a safe haven.
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In an October interview with ThinkAdvisor, Dent shared his perspective on the safest investment: “Some say that gold will be the real money, but I say, ‘No, Treasury bonds are the safe haven.’ Even in a downturn, the (United States) is the best house in a bad neighborhood.”
Now, before you sell your entire stock portfolio and load up on Treasury bonds, keep in mind that Wall Street doesn’t appear to share much of Dent’s concern.
For instance, Goldman Sachs recently raised its 2024 price target for the S&P 500 to 5,100. Considering that the benchmark index currently sits at 4,770, the price target implies a potential upside of 7%.
One of the reasons behind Goldman’s bullish stance is interest rates. The investment bank now expects the Fed to cut rates five times in 2024.
“Resilient growth and falling rates should benefit stocks with weaker balance sheets, particularly those that are sensitive to economic growth,” said Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin.
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This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
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