Dec. 20—With a near record number of travelers expected to leave home during the year-end holiday week, both the prices at the gas pumps and the weather should be in their favor, forecasters say.

While some will be disappointed that weather reports are not calling for a white Christmas, the clear roads should mean safer conditions for the 115.2 million travelers that AAA expects will head 50 miles or more from home over the 10-day period that begins Saturday.

That’s a 2.5 million person increase over last year and would be the second highest number of year-end travelers since 2000, when AAA began tracking holiday travel. Only 2019 had more travelers, AAA said.

And those who are driving to their holiday destinations should get a break at the pumps as well, with gas prices having fallen for the 13th straight week.

The nation’s average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline dropped 2 cents from a week ago to $3.10 on Wednesday, according to GasBuddy.

The national average is down 26.9 cents from a month ago and is 6.8 cents per gallon lower than a year ago, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in his latest blog post.

Compared with prices in early fall, when the national average reached $3.85 per gallon, the cost has dropped nearly 80 cents, he said.

In Pennsylvania the average Wednesday was $3.43 per gallon, while in the region it was $3.43 in Berks County, $3.33 in Lehigh County, $3.42 in Delaware County, $3.40 in Montgomery County, $3.41 in Chester County, and $3.37 in Schuylkill County.

“We’re on the cusp of potentially seeing a $2.99 per gallon average for the first time in years, most welcome just in time for the Christmas holiday,” De Haan said. “While the declines may soon come to an end as the price of oil has rebounded from recent lows, we could see a gentler 2024 at the pump for motorists.”

Another window of opportunity for lower gas prices could arrive in January or February when refiners start to liquidate winter gasoline ahead of the transition to summer fuels, he said.

The price of diesel just fell below $4 for the first time since July, which is welcome news for the economy as nearly all goods are impacted by the price of diesel, he said.

The rise in oil prices he referred to occurred this week after comments from the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate cuts are likely to start in 2024, boosting optimism that oil demand will grow next year, De Haan said.

The federal Energy Information Administration’s latest energy outlook predicted that nationally gas prices would fall from an average of $3.20 per gallon of regular unleaded in December to $3.11 in January and $3.12 in February. The agency predicts they’ll then gradually rise to a peak of $3.59 in June before again descending through the rest of 2024.

Continuing trend

The increase in travelers over the holidays would mirror what AAA Travel has observed throughout 2023, with more people taking to the roads and skies, Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel, said in a release.

AAA expects nearly 104 million people will drive to their holiday destinations, an increase of 1.8% from 2022, and that will likely make for slower travel.

“Nationwide, drivers could see travel times up to 20% longer this holiday season,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX, a transportation data and insight firm.

Meanwhile airports are expected to be the busiest they’ve ever been over the Christmas and New Year’s travel period, with AAA predicting 7.5 million air travelers this holiday season. Average plane ticket prices are slightly lower than last year, AAA said.

The company expects more than 4 million Americans will take alternative transportation over the holiday week, which would be another record.

On the turnpike

The Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission projects 5.2 million vehicles will be on its 564 miles of road between Dec. 22 and Jan. 1, which would be about 2% higher than traffic volumes from the same period last year.

The busiest days are projected to be Thursday and Friday, with 580,000 and 600,000 motorists, respectively.

Turnpike officials encourage travelers to prepare by finding its real-time traffic and road conditions online and allowing plenty of time to get safely to their destination.

And starting Friday, all road construction work will be suspended and additional safety and police personnel will be on the road to assist customers during the holiday week, officials said.

In the airports

Transportation Security Administration officials said the agency is prepared for sustained higher passenger volumes during the winter holiday travel season and expects airport security checkpoints to be busier this year compared with last year.

The TSA’s official end-of-the-year holiday travel period starts Dec. 21 and continues through Jan. 2, with the busiest days projected to be Dec. 21, Dec. 29 and Jan. 1.

On those days the agency expects to screen more than 2.5 million passengers daily, which would be a 6% increase from 2022. The busiest day last year was Dec. 29, when TSA screened nearly 2.4 million passengers.

The TSA screened nearly 30 million passengers during the 12-day Thanksgiving holiday period and broke the record for most passengers in a single day on Nov. 26, screening more than 2.9 million at security checkpoints nationwide, officials said.

Weather forecast

The weather should be dry until at least Tuesday, with high temperatures ranging from 41 on Friday to 53 on Christmas Day, according to AccuWeather forecasts for Reading.

Daily high temperatures should remain near 50 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, but those days are likely to bring showers, meteorologists said.

New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day forecasts call for highs of 39 with sunny skies.

The next day that snow seems likely is Jan. 2, forecasters said.